PROMISE annual meeting
June 10th 2001

1. List of participants
2. Review of progress in Year 1
3. Discussion of plans for Year 2
4. Preliminary plans for an international conference at the end of PROMISE
5. PROMISE Website
6. PROMISE data archive

1. List of participants

Julia Slingo (UREADMY) - Project coordinator
Christian Baron (CIRAD)
Emily Black (UREADMY)
Andrew Challinor (UREADMY)
Susanna Corti (CINECA)
Herve Douville (CNRM)
Katia Laval (LMD)
David Lawrence (UREADMY)
Roy Kershaw (Met Office)
Wihelm May (DMI)
Franco Molteni (ICTP)
David Rowell (Met Office)
Jean-Francois Royer (CNRM)
Abdallah Samba (Agrhymet)
Reiner Schnur (MPI)
Ken Sperber (UREADMY)
David Stephenson (UREADMY)
Emma Tate (CEH)
Chris Taylor (CEH)
Sylwia Trzaska (CRC)
Tim Wheeler (UREADAG)

2. Review of progress in Year 1

Scientific deliverables
The project is generally progressing well. The only Year 1 deliverable which has not been completed was D1301 Understanding the relationship between Eurasian snow anomalies and monsoon variability which has been started and will be completed in year 2. In addition, the collation of observational datasets for the data archive (D4003 Caching of relevant observational datasets for impact studies) has been deferred until later in the project. The scientific achievements of the first year, as detailed in the annual report were summarized during the meeting. The annual report can be read online by following this link.

Coordination and promotion of PROMISE
The running of the project has proceeded smoothly. A brochure aimed at non-specialists has been produced and distributed widely. The PROMISE website is now online. There has been a workshop on crop modelling within the PROMISE project held at CIRAD during March 2001 (follow this link for a report on the meeting). In addition PROMISE has been promoted by Emily Black and Andrew Challinor at the IMD International Conference on Monsoon Forecasting held in New Dehli during March.

Finance
The budgets of all the partners were included in the annual report and were summarized at the meeting. There has been a substantial underspend - mainly due to problems with recruiting experienced by several of the partners. The deficit will be made up during the rest of the project possibly with some redirection of funds (subject to approval from Brussels).

3. Discussion of plans for Year 2

Deliverables for Year 2
D1003 Development of advanced statistical techniques for extracting signals of monsoon variability at intraseasonal and seasonal time scales. The principal investigators in charge of this deliverable will be Jean-Francois Royer at CNRM and David Stephenson at UREADMY. No problem was foreseen for the completion of this deliverable although there may be some delay because of the need to recruit a postdoctoral researcher.

D3001 Provision of a detailed hydrological model for application to West Africa. The partner in charge of this deliverable is Emma Tate of CEH. Progress on the model is good and there should be no problem with achieving the deliverable.

D5002 Workshop with EU and non-EU partners. The principal investigators in charge of this deliverable were Julia Slingo (UREADMY) and Franco Molteni (ICTP). This deliverable was achieved with the June 2001 workshop on Land-Atmosphere Interactions and the Hydrological Cycle which incorporated the PROMISE annual meeting.

D5003 Establishment of an international network of scientists concerned with the impacts of monsoon climates on cropping systems of Africa and India. The principal investigator in charge of D5003 is Tim Wheeler (UREADAG). Progress towards achieving this deliverable has been good with a visit to Hydrabad crop research centre already having taken place Further visits are planned to Colombia, Mexico, Nigeria and the Phillipines.

Milestones for Year 2
The milestones for Year 2 were outlined. It is expected that all will be met although there may be some problems caused by the delayed schedule of ERA-40. There was some discussion of the effect that the delay to ERA-40 will have on PROMISE. The snow-cover sensitivitity experiments carried out at ICTP will be delayed and if the problems continue a different data set will have to be used. In addition, the delays to the DEMETER project runs will impact on PROMISE. Despite this, the partners did not feel that the problems with ERA-40 will greatly affect the outcome of PROMISE (although there may be delays to some milestone).

Climate Change Scenarios
The importance of agreeing on a common block of years for the climate change scenarios was acknowledged by the partners. Concern was expressed by several partners about the groups not adhering to the years proposed in the original plan (follow this link to see the plan). It was decided that the modelling groups should meet separately to make a final decision about the years included in the climate change scenario runs.

Dissemination/publicity plans
Preliminary plans for an 8-page brochure based on the executive summary included in the annual report were discussed. The partners felt that such a brochure would be a good idea in principle. There was more discussion about the role of the website later on.

Joint Workshop with DEMETER on downscaling
Plans for a joint workshop between DEMETER and PROMISE on downscaling issues during November were discussed. The agenda for the meeting will be published on the website closer to the time.

Location and date of the next annual meeting
No final decision was made although a preliminary idea of having the meeting in Paris during April was suggested by Katia Laval.

4. Preliminary plans for an international conference
Plans for an international conference to coincide with the end of PROMISE in 2003 were discussed. The head of START/CLIMAG, Peter Gregory, has expressed interest in a joint conference between PROMISE and CLIMAG and Julia Slingo will submit a short proposal to him in October for presentation at the START steering group meeting. There was discussion of the meeting taking place at ICTP in Spring 2003 and also of the potential involvement of the Third World Academy of Science which is based at ICTP. WRCP/CLIVAR SSG also expressed interest in supporting the conference.

5. PROMISE website (presented by Emily Black)
Emily Black gave a brief tour of the PROMISE website and described how it will be developed in the next year. The main aim will be to increase the science content of the site to make it relevant to scientists not directly involved with PROMISE. The partners seemed basically happy with the website but several pointed out that it was not easily accessible either from the University of Reading site or through search engines. It was agreed that improving the visibility of the site would be one of the objectives for Year 2.

6. PROMISE data archive (presented by Susanna Corti and Franco Molteni)
The current capabilities of the archive were demonstrated by Susanna Corti and Franco Molteni (follow this link to the data archive). The partners were happy with the layout of the site and the way that data can be either visualised or downloaded. At the moment there is only limited data in the archive but as the modelling groups finish their runs more will be added. The issue of restricted access to the archive was discussed and concern was expressed about the data for future climate scenarios being misused (for example by the media). It was decided that access should be restricted to bona fide researchers who could register for use of the archive through an online form to mail. Registration would be administrated by CINECA and also monitored in Reading.