PROMISE
annual meeting
June 10th 2001
1.
List of participants
2. Review of progress in Year 1
3. Discussion of plans for Year 2
4. Preliminary plans for an international
conference at the end of PROMISE
5. PROMISE Website
6. PROMISE data archive
1.
List of participants
Julia Slingo (UREADMY) - Project
coordinator
Christian Baron (CIRAD)
Emily Black (UREADMY)
Andrew Challinor (UREADMY)
Susanna Corti (CINECA)
Herve Douville (CNRM)
Katia Laval (LMD)
David Lawrence (UREADMY)
Roy Kershaw (Met Office)
Wihelm May (DMI)
Franco Molteni (ICTP)
David Rowell (Met Office)
Jean-Francois Royer (CNRM)
Abdallah Samba (Agrhymet)
Reiner Schnur (MPI)
Ken Sperber (UREADMY)
David Stephenson (UREADMY)
Emma Tate (CEH)
Chris Taylor (CEH)
Sylwia Trzaska (CRC)
Tim Wheeler (UREADAG)
2. Review of progress in Year 1
Scientific deliverables
The project is generally progressing well. The only Year 1 deliverable
which has not been completed was D1301 Understanding the relationship
between Eurasian snow anomalies and monsoon variability which has
been started and will be completed in year 2. In addition, the collation
of observational datasets for the data archive (D4003 Caching of relevant
observational datasets for impact studies) has been deferred until
later in the project. The scientific achievements of the first year, as
detailed in the annual report were summarized during the meeting. The
annual report can be read online by following this link.
Coordination
and promotion of PROMISE
The running of the project has proceeded smoothly. A brochure aimed
at non-specialists has been produced and distributed widely. The PROMISE
website is now online. There has been a workshop on crop modelling within
the PROMISE project held at CIRAD during March 2001 (follow this link
for a report on the meeting). In addition PROMISE has been promoted by
Emily Black and Andrew Challinor at the IMD International Conference on
Monsoon Forecasting held in New Dehli during March.
Finance
The budgets of all the partners were included in the annual report
and were summarized at the meeting. There has been a substantial underspend
- mainly due to problems with recruiting experienced by several of the
partners. The deficit will be made up during the rest of the project possibly
with some redirection of funds (subject to approval from Brussels).
3. Discussion
of plans for Year 2
Deliverables
for Year 2
D1003 Development of advanced statistical techniques for
extracting signals of monsoon variability at intraseasonal and seasonal
time scales. The principal investigators in charge of this deliverable
will be Jean-Francois Royer at CNRM and David Stephenson at UREADMY. No
problem was foreseen for the completion of this deliverable although there
may be some delay because of the need to recruit a postdoctoral researcher.
D3001 Provision
of a detailed hydrological model for application to West Africa. The
partner in charge of this deliverable is Emma Tate of CEH. Progress on
the model is good and there should be no problem with achieving the deliverable.
D5002 Workshop
with EU and non-EU partners. The principal investigators in charge
of this deliverable were Julia Slingo (UREADMY) and Franco Molteni (ICTP).
This deliverable was achieved with the June 2001 workshop on Land-Atmosphere
Interactions and the Hydrological Cycle which incorporated the PROMISE
annual meeting.
D5003 Establishment
of an international network of scientists concerned with the impacts of
monsoon climates on cropping systems of Africa and India. The principal
investigator in charge of D5003 is Tim Wheeler (UREADAG). Progress towards
achieving this deliverable has been good with a visit to Hydrabad crop
research centre already having taken place Further visits are planned
to Colombia, Mexico, Nigeria and the Phillipines.
Milestones
for Year 2
The milestones for Year 2 were outlined. It is expected that all will
be met although there may be some problems caused by the delayed schedule
of ERA-40. There was some discussion of the effect that the delay to ERA-40
will have on PROMISE. The snow-cover sensitivitity experiments carried
out at ICTP will be delayed and if the problems continue a different data
set will have to be used. In addition, the delays to the DEMETER project
runs will impact on PROMISE. Despite this, the partners did not feel that
the problems with ERA-40 will greatly affect the outcome of PROMISE (although
there may be delays to some milestone).
Climate Change
Scenarios
The importance of agreeing on a common block of years for the climate
change scenarios was acknowledged by the partners. Concern was expressed
by several partners about the groups not adhering to the years proposed
in the original plan (follow this link
to see the plan). It was decided that the modelling groups should meet
separately to make a final decision about the years included in the climate
change scenario runs.
Dissemination/publicity
plans
Preliminary plans for an 8-page brochure based on the executive summary
included in the annual report were discussed. The partners felt that such
a brochure would be a good idea in principle. There was more discussion
about the role of the website later on.
Joint Workshop
with DEMETER on downscaling
Plans for a joint workshop between DEMETER and PROMISE on downscaling
issues during November were discussed. The agenda for the meeting will
be published on the website closer to the time.
Location and
date of the next annual meeting
No final decision was made although a preliminary idea of having the
meeting in Paris during April was suggested by Katia Laval.
4.
Preliminary plans for an international conference
Plans for an international conference to coincide with the end of
PROMISE in 2003 were discussed. The head of START/CLIMAG, Peter Gregory,
has expressed interest in a joint conference between PROMISE and CLIMAG
and Julia Slingo will submit a short proposal to him in October for presentation
at the START steering group meeting. There was discussion of the meeting
taking place at ICTP in Spring 2003 and also of the potential involvement
of the Third World Academy of Science which is based at ICTP. WRCP/CLIVAR
SSG also expressed interest in supporting the conference.
5.
PROMISE website (presented by Emily Black)
Emily Black gave a brief tour of the PROMISE website and described
how it will be developed in the next year. The main aim will be to increase
the science content of the site to make it relevant to scientists not
directly involved with PROMISE. The partners seemed basically happy with
the website but several pointed out that it was not easily accessible
either from the University of Reading site or through search engines.
It was agreed that improving the visibility of the site would be one of
the objectives for Year 2.
6.
PROMISE data archive (presented by Susanna Corti and Franco Molteni)
The current capabilities of the archive were demonstrated by Susanna
Corti and Franco Molteni (follow this
link to the data archive). The partners were happy with the layout
of the site and the way that data can be either visualised or downloaded.
At the moment there is only limited data in the archive but as the modelling
groups finish their runs more will be added. The issue of restricted access
to the archive was discussed and concern was expressed about the data
for future climate scenarios being misused (for example by the media).
It was decided that access should be restricted to bona fide researchers
who could register for use of the archive through an online form to mail.
Registration would be administrated by CINECA and also monitored in Reading.
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