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PROMISE Kick-Off Meeting: 3 - 5 April 2000
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading
1. Programme
2. List of Participants:
3. Summary of Deliverables for Year 1:The deliverables for Year 1 were reviewed and no problems were anticipated in achieving these milestones. WP1000: Natural variability of monsoon climates: WP1100: Seasonal predictability of monsoon climates WP1200: Sensitivity of monsoon variability/predictability to SST forcing WP1300: Sensitivity of monsoon variability/predictability to land surface
processes/conditions WP2000: Assessment of future monsoon climates in response to anthropogenic
climate change WP2100: Impact of land-use changes on future monsoon climates WP3000: Ground hydrology and water resources for monsoon climates WP3100: Seasonal prediction of crop yields and assessment of climate
change impacts on crop productivity WP4000: Development of a database of observed and simulated data on
meteorology, hydrology and agriculture for monsoon climates. WP5000: Establishment of active links with climate scientists in monsoon
affected countries and with international hydrological and agricultural
research centres. WP6000: Coordination and promotion of the aims, activities and achievements
of the PROMISE project.
4. Coordination of modelling activities related to predictability and variability of monsoons:Each group has well defined tasks and can work relatively independently. NERC will develop scenarios for land cover change in sub-Saharan Africa which will be made available to the modelling groups. Preliminary results from sensitivity experiments on changes in land use suggest that there may be important impacts on future climate scenarios.
5. Data needs for the agricultural and hydrological application models:(a) Parameters The following list is based on that proposed as the minimum archive for the seasonal prediction ensembles performed within the DEMETER project. Note that individual groups may well archive a much more extensive set of variables. The PROMISE group discussed this list and proposed various amendments/additions. These are given in upper case. The group also identified these variables as being an appropriate set for the climate change scenarios. Pressure level data (instantaneous, every 24 hours at 00Z): Temperature at 850hPa Specific humidity at 850hPa Zonal and meridional wind components at 850hPa Geopotential height at 500 and 200hPa Zonal and meridional wind components at 200hPa Surface (instantaneous, every 6 hours based on 00Z): 10 metre zonal and meridional wind components 2 metre temperature 2 metre specific humidity SURFACE/SKIN TEMPERATURE or ACCUMULATED DOWNWARD LONGWAVE & SHORTWAVE RADIATION ? WATER AVAILABILITY IN TOP SOIL LAYER? NB: To estimate turbulent fluxes of heat and moisture, the PROMISE group identified the need for surface values, or at least the incoming radiation terms required for a surface energy budget calculation. Note that crop models generally include their own soil schemes which calculate evapotranspiration rates (usually with the Penman Formula) and therefore their needs are only for the near surface variables and the daily downward solar radiation (see below). Water resource modellers - please comment! Surface (instantaneous, every 24 hours at 00Z): 2 metre maximum temperature 2 metre minimum temperature Total soil moisture - or components to calculate this Snow depth as water equivalent Total cloud cover (UTILITY OF THIS WAS NOT EVIDENT SINCE IT IS AN INSTANTANEOUS FIELD) Surface temperature (ALSO OF LITTLE USE BECAUSE IT IS AN INSTANTANEOUS VALUE. NOTE THE REQUEST FOR 6 HOURLY SURFACE TEMPERATURE OR THE COMPONENTS TO CALCULATE THE SURFACE ENERGY BUDGET) Mean sea level pressure Surface (accumulated, every 24 hours centred on 12Z?): Total precipitation Downward surface solar radiation OLR NET SURFACE RADIATION (REQUESTED BY WATER RESOURCE MODELLERS) Constant fields: Land-sea mask Orography Roughness length Surface albedo (N.B. SOME MODELS HAVE SEASONAL VARIATIONS) Field capacity Wilting point etc.... (b) Resolution The proposed temporal sampling of 6 hourly or daily data was considered adequate for all applications. Water resource models have been developed at a resolution of 0.5 latitude/longitude. Previous applications with climate scenarios have involved a simple upscaling from the coarse resolution of the climate model (in this case 2.5 latitude by 3.75 longitude) to the high resolution grid of the water resource model. Crop models are often tested and used at a single point representative of a field or local region. Applications of crop models to seasonal forecasting with lead times of 1-2 months over West Africa have involved rainfall data produced at 25km resolution from Meteosat observations and statistical rainfall generators. Applications of numerical meteorological model data to crop growth monitoring over Europe has worked at a resolution of 50 km. using data from the Meteo- France ARPEGE variable grid model and the ECMWF operational analyses; both data sources provide data on ~ 0.5 grid. (N.B. see `Interest in numerical meteorological model parameters as input in the JRC Crop Growth Monitoring System' by P. Segers, J.M. Terres, F. Biard, S. Orlandi and R. Delecolle. Published as a technical note by the Joint Research Centre, ISPRA, Italy. This contains some good examples of the application and comparison of numerical data in terms of crop development and yields. Also see http://mars.aris.sai.jrc.it/). The highest spatial resolution of the DEMETER forecasts will be provided by the ECMWF who will run at TL95, equivalent to a grid of 150-200km. Other groups are likely to be nearer 300km. The climate change scenarios supplied from high resolution time slice experiments are likely to be at a resolution of ~ 100km. It will be important to assess the sensitivity of the crop model results to resolution by carrying out some test cases with operational ECMWF analyses.
6. Potential data sources for the agricultural and hydrological application models:(a) Climate change scenarios DMI: High resolution (T106) time slice experiments with ECHAM4: Present day and 2060-2089 The Met. Office: Regional climate change scenarios (~100km.) with Had CM2. Present day and 2041-2060 LMD: Zoom model to be applied over India Period of integration to be decided Meteo-France: Time slice experiments with variable grid centred at 0,0. Period likely to be 2030-2050. The group noted the desirability of working with a common period and common forcing (e.g. transient CO2, IPCC scenario B2?) for the high resolution time slice experiments. EU FP5 Proposal SEASCAPE, currently under evaluation, involves regional climate change scenarios (primarily for Europe) as well as some high resolution (~1.5) global time slices, and may also be a useful source of data. (b) ECMWF 40-year Reanalysis (ERA-40) Through the EU FP5 project ERA-40, ECMWF will produce a comprehensive reanalysis for the period 1957-2001. The resolution will be TL195 (~125km grid) at 6-hourly intervals. The analysis and assimilation system, particularly for land surface parameters, has been improved considerably from ERA-15. The schedule for the production of the data is as follows: Stream 1: 1987-1998 Start early 2000 Available mid 2001 Stream 2: 1957-1968 Start mid 2000 Available mid 2001 Stream 3: 1972-1988 Start early 2001 Available mid 2002 Stream 4: 1999-2001 Start early 2002 Available mid 2002 Several PROMISE groups (UREADMY, Meteo-France, The Met. Office, MPI) are official partners in ERA-40. Data will be available through National Met. Services and selected variables, required by crop and water resource models, will be archived on the PROMISE Data Archive at CINECA (subject to the necessary permission). (c) Seasonal prediction ensembles: DEMETER will produce 9 member ensembles for each season for ~30 years. Six models will be used giving multi-model ensembles with 54 members for each season. The length of integration will be 6 months starting on 1 May for summer season with initial conditions taken from ERA-40. The integrations will be performed in two phases: 1987-1999; 1969-1986. All data will be archived at ECMWF; selected variables will be extracted and placed on the PROMISE Data Archive. Current commitments within PROMISE are for the following model integrations to be made available: ECMWF: ECMWF atmosphere (Cy22r1 as used in ERA-40 + HOPE Resolution TL159 (~200km) The Met. Office: HadCM3 and HadAM3 with nudged SSTs Climate resolution, 2.5 latitude by 3.75 longitude It is possible that The Met. Office may repeat some ensembles at higher resolution (~1) for particular seasons. ICTP and UREADMY may also perform some higher resolution ensembles with the ECMWF system for extremes of ENSO forcing, for example, and possibly also with earlier start dates (e.g. March, April) to provide longer lead forecasts for the start of the growing season. The needs of the crop and water resource modellers will be reviewed at future meetings of the PROMISE group.
7. PROMISE Data Archive:The PROMISE Data Archive will be located at Laboratory for Numerical Analysis of Meteorological and Oceanographic Data at CINECA, Bologna, Italy and managed by Susanna Corti. The Archive for Meteorological and Oceanographic Data (ADAMO; http:// www.cineca.it/adamo) has excellent internet links, including TCP/IP protocols, which enable users to extract, process, visualize and ftp data from the archive. Currently ADAMO has extensive holdings of ERA-15, operational ECMWF analyses and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. A data search facility is available for the user. The standard file format used in ADAMO is GRIB (WMO recommended file structure for meteorological data). GRIB is a compact format. Various tools are available at ADAMO for converting to GRaDS, a widely used, multi-variable, multi-dimensional file structure. GRaDS software for visualisation is also widely used and has an easy script language which allows customized plotting. Regridding tools are also available at ADAMO. The PROMISE group discussed the current facilities at ADAMO and made the following proposals which take into account the modes of working of the crop and water resource modelling groups: - Additional software to convert GRIB to ASCII was requested by the applications groups. Fortran code to unpack GRIB and GRaDS was also requested to enable users to convert to other file formats such as NetCDF. - Graph plotting packages, such as XMGR, should be available to complement the 2D visualisation offered by GRaDS. - Statistical tools being developed at UREADMY should be made available either directly at ADAMO or through a hyperlink to UREADMY. Based on these discussions, Susanna Corti and Franco Molteni will develop an outline plan for the data archive. Each partner should identify which datasets they can contribute and what the file structure is likely to be. The archive should develop a protocol for dealing with access to `sensitive' datasets. Some applications datasets potentially have commercial value. ERA-40 data will also be restricted.
8. Coordination Plans(a) Web site A temporary website exists at http://www.ictp.trieste.it/~moltenif/projects/promise.html. In the next 2-3 months this will be replaced by the official site at UREADMY. PROMISE partners are encouraged to contribute material or hyperlink addresses for inclusion in the site. Links to related programmes will be developed. Real time monitoring of the Indian and West African monsoons (as carried out for India in the SHIVA project) was endorsed by the group. David Stephenson and Rupa Kumar Kolli (IITM, Pune) will continue to maintain their site on predicting the Asian Summer Monsoon located at http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/cag/Monsoon/index.html. (b) Mailing list PROMISE will develop a comprehensive email and postal mailing list which will be used for promoting PROMISE research and for involving the users, particularly in developing countries, in the applications of our research. All partners are asked to send any appropriate names/lists to the coordinator. (c) PROMISE brochure A flier/brochure outlining the aims of PROMISE will be prepared during the next 6 months and widely distributed through the mailing list. Partners are asked to provide the coordinator with suggestions for the content of the brochure and also any suitable images. (d) PROMISE Workshop in Year 2 The next PROMISE meeting will be combined with the workshop with scientists from monsoon-affected countries and will focus on the collaborative aspects of model validation and hydrological/agricultural impact studies. Each year the `Physics of Climate' group at ICTP holds a `Summer Colloquium' which is composed of two parts: a Workshop/School, which a mainly educational activity lasting two weeks, and a one-week Conference, in which recent results are presented. In 2001, the intention is to combine the PROMISE annual meeting and workshop with the Summer Colloquium at ICTP, which has the proposed general title of `Land- atmosphere interactions and the hydrological cycle'. This Colloquium will consist of: 28 May - 8 June 2001: Workshop/school `Land-atmosphere interactions in climate models' 11-15 June 2001: Conference, `Climate variability and land-surface processes: physical interactions and regional impacts' The conference need not be wholly devoted to scientific presentations; we might have, for example, one special day devoted to `International cooperation and data exchange under the PROMISE project'. The advantage of this arrangement is that ICTP could pay for subsistence and travel for the `students' (about 70 people, mainly from developing countries, while the PROMISE funds may be used to pay for the lecturers' expenses and per-diem. In this way, we could present the PROMISE activities to a very large audience. In addition, since the workshop/ school involves lab. sessions, we could actually teach students how to access and retrieve data from the public-domain part of the PROMISE archive. This proposal is still awaiting final approval but the PROMISE group is asked to note the dates. It is likely that the business meeting of the PROMISE group will take place during the weekend of 9/10 June.
9. Development of links with related programmes(a) CGIAR UREADAG and CIRAD already have links with various agricultural research centres in the tropics which fall within the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR). See http://www.cgiar.org/centers.htm. Useful information on major world crop areas and climatic profiles can be found at http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/jawf/profiles/ mwcacp2.htm#EASTASIA. (b) START START is a WCRP/IGBP/IHDP Programme (http://www.start.org/) which aims to: Develop a system of regional networks of collaborating scientists and institutions: -to conduct research on regional aspects of global change; - to assess the causes and impacts of regional global change - and to provide relevant information to policy makers and governments Enhance scientific capacity in developing countries by strengthening and connecting existing institutions, by training global change scientists and by providing them with improved and enhanced access to data, communication technology and research results. Help mobilize the resources required to augment existing global change scientific capabilities infrastructure and activities in developing countries. START has a Fellowship/Visiting Scientist Program which might be a funding source for supporting visits by scientists from monsoon countries to PROMISE partners. Information on how to apply is being sought. START has various projects. Of particular interest to PROMISE is `Climate Prediction and Agriculture (CLIMAG)' which aims to apply the potential benefits of seasonal prediction to agricultural production. Information on CLIMAG is contained in the Dec. 1999 START Newsletter which can be retrieved from the START website. (c) CLIPS Climate Information and Prediction Services (CLIPS) is a WMO Programme led by Dr. Mike Harrison. It aims to link the science and applications of climate variability and predictability on seasonal to interannual timescales and therefore is similar to START but with a narrower remit. PROMISE will be an important element of CLIPS. Mike Harrison will visit Reading on 2 May to discuss potential links between the two programmes. (d) Other related programmes: - MEDIAS (http://medias.meteo.fr/www/anglais/) deals with climate change and its impacts on the Mediterranean and Sub-tropical Africa. There may be potential links for the African components of PROMISE. - IRI, New York, is holding an `International Forum on Climate Prediction, Agriculture and Development' on 26-28 April, 2000 (see http://iri.ldeo.columbia.edu/news/forum2000/ agenda.html). The conference will cover the prospects for climate prediction and regional experiences in agricultural applications of climate predictions. The user community will be well represented. Andy Challinor from Reading will attend the conference and provide a report to the PROMISE group. - WMO Hydrology and Water Resources Programme (HWR: see http://www.wmo.ch/). Links to other climate variability and water resources are sought. Julia Slingo 10 April 2000 |