Objectives:

To establish active links with climate scientists in monsoon affected countries and with international hydrological and agricultural research centres, and to develop a protocol for integrating the output of climate models into crop models to address impact issues.

Work description:

UREADMY: A brochure outlining the aims of PROMISE will be prepared in the early stages of the project. This will be widely distributed to the meteorological, agricultural and hydrological research and user communities, particularly those with interests in monsoon-affected countries. It will include an invitation to join a mailing list. The mailing list will be used (a) to maintain and develop contacts, (b) to distribute information sheets on PROMISE achievements, and (c) to invite feedback to the project.

ICTP with UREADMY: Substantial links with institutions in extra-European countries will be developed through the following activities: a) Organization of a workshop at ICTP during the second year of the project, especially focused on the collaborative aspects of model validation and hydrological/agricultural impact studies. b) Dependent on additional funding being obtained, visits by scientists from extra-European partners will be hosted to initiate collaborative research programmes.

UREADAG: Links will be established with the agricultural research community investigating the impacts of monsoon climates on crop production in India and Africa. A series of visits will be undertaken to key scientists in the international agricultural research centres of the CGIAR (Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research). Of particular importance will be ICRISAT, India; IITA, Nigeria; ICRAF, Kenya; and IRRI, the Philippines; and CIMMYT, Mexico. Together, these institutes are mandated to cover the most important cereal and grain legume crops grown across India and Africa. Collaboration will be sought with scientists developing crop simulation models and those working with geographic information systems at each of these institutes.

UREADAG: Protocols for integrating information from seasonal forecasts of monsoon climates with assessments of the impact of climate change on the productivity of cropping systems in India and Africa will be developed. The information needed by the impact community from climate models will be collated. As a result, protocols for integrating the output of climate models into crop models will be developed that consider issues such as: which climate variables are required by the crop scientists, what spatial and temporal resolution of climate variables is required; and what is the appropriate level of skill of climate forecasts required by crop modellers.

Deliverables:

D5001: Publication of a brochure outlining the aims of PROMISE and establishment of a mailing list.

D5002: Workshop with EU and non-EU partners (held during the second year of the project) focused on the collaborative aspects of model validation and hydrological/agricultural impact studies.

D5003: Establish an international network of scientists concerned with the impacts of monsoon climates on cropping systems of Africa and India.

D5004: Report on the protocol for integrating information from seasonal forecasts of monsoon climates with impact assessments of crop productivity in India and Africa.

Milestones:

Year 1: Publication of a brochure outlining the aims of PROMISE and establishment of a mailing list.

Year 2: Complete networking trips to international agricultural research centres and summarise requirements of the crop impacts community for delivery to the project collaborators. Organization of the workshop with non-EU scientists.

Year 3: Submit protocol for examining impacts of seasonal forecasts of monsoon climates on the productivity of cropping systems in India and Africa for publication, and disseminate to researchers worldwide.