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Impact of land use changes on future monsoon climates - WP2100 Partners involved: LMD (lead contractor), MF, ICTP and CEH The aims of this work package are to use global and/or regional control and scenario integrations to address the impact of land-use changes (e.g. deforestation) on monsoon climates. The sensitivity of the results to the representation of hydrological and land-surface processes will be investigated. Principle achievements so far:
Publications on this topic arising from PROMISE Douville H. 2002 Influence of soil moisture on the Asian and African
monsoons. Part II: Interannual variability Journal of Climate 15
701-720 Publications relating to this topic by PROMISE partners Douville H. and J-F. Royer (1996): Sensitivity of the Asian summer monsoon to an anomalous Eurasian snow cover within the METEO-FRANCE GCM, Climate Dynamics, 12, 441-448. Douville H, Chauvin F (2000): Relevance of soil moisture for seasonal climate predictions: a preliminary study. Climate Dynamics 16, 719-736 Douville H, Chauvin F, Broqua H (2001): Influence of soil moisture on the Asian and African monsoons. Part I: Mean monsoon and daily precipitation. J Climate (in press) Douville H (2001): Influence of soil moisture on the Asian and African monsoons. Part II: interannual variability. J Climate (submitted) Ferranti, L. and F. Molteni,
1999: Ensemble simulations of Eurasian snow-depth anomalies and
their influence on the summer Asian monsoon. Quaterly Journal
of the Meteorological Society, 125, 2597-2610. Meigh J.R., McKenzie A.A. and Sene K.J., (1999) A grid-based approach to water scarcity estimates for eastern and southern Africa. Water Resources Management, 13, 85-115 Taylor CM, Harding RJ, Thorpe AJ, Bessemoulin P. 1997. A mesoscale simulation of land surface heterogeneity from HAPEX-Sahel. LJ.Hydrol. 189: 1040-1066. Taylor CM, Saïd F, Lebel T. 1997. Interactions between the land surface and mesoscale rainfall variability during HAPEX-Sahel. Mon.Weath.Rev. 125: 2211-2227. Taylor CM, Lebel T. 1998. Observational evidence of persistent convective-scale rainfall patterns. Mon.Weath.Rev. 126: 1597-1607. Taylor CM. 2000. The influence of antecedent rainfall on Sahelian surface evaporation. Hydrol.Processes 14: 1245-1259. Taylor, CM and Blyth, EM. 2000. Rainfall controls on evaporation at the regional scale: an example from the Sahel. Journal Of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 105(D12), 15469-15480 . Taylor, CM, Clark, DB, and Cox, PM. (in press)Land surface controls on West African rainfall in a GCM. International Workshop on West African Monsoon Variability and Predictability. Polcher, J. (1994) Etude de la sensibilite du climat tropical a la deforestation. PhD Thesis, Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris VI. Polcher, J. and Laval, K. (1994a) The impact of African and Amazonian deforestation on tropical climate. Journal of Hydrology 155:389-405. Polcher, J. and Laval, K. (1994b) A statistical study of the regional impact of deforestation on climate in the LMD-GCM. Climate Dynamics 10:205-219. Le Roux, X., Polcher, J., Dedieu, G., Menaut, J. C., and Monteny, B. (1994) Radiation exchanges above west african moist savannas: seasonal patterns, and comparaison with a GCM simulation. J. Geophys. Res. 99(D12):25,857-25,868. Mechoso, C.R., Robertson, A.W., Barth, N., Davey, M.K., Delecluse, P., Gent, P.R., Ineson, S., Kirtman, B., Latif, M., Le Treut, H., Nagai, T., Neelin, J.D., Philander, S.G.H., Polcher, J., Schopf, P.S., Stockdale, T., Suarez, M.J., Terry, L., Thual, O., Tribbia, J.J. (1995). The seasonal cycle over the tropical pacific in general circulation models. Monthly Weather Review 123(9):2825-2838. Polcher, J. (1995) Sensitivity of tropical convection to land surface processes. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 52(17):3143-3161. R.C. Raghava, K. Laval, R. Sadourny, J. Polcher (1995) On the atmospheric response to the tropical denuding of vegetation. Atmospheric Environment 29, pp1963-2000. K. Laval and J. Polcher (1995) Sensitivity of the Indian Monsoon to Land-Surface Evaporationrate in the LMD-GCM. AMIP Scientific Conference, 15-19 May 1995, Monterey, California Polcher J., Laval, K., Dumenil, L., Lean, J., Rowntree, P.R. (1996) Comparing three land surface schemes used in GCMs. Journal of Hydrology 180:373-394. Polcher J. and Shao, Y. (1996) A Standard format for reporting PILPS experiments. Global and Planetary Change 13:217-223. Peylin, P., Polcher J., Bonan, G., Williamson, D., Laval, K. (1996) Comparison of two complex Land-Surface Schemes coupled to the NCAR-GCM J. Geophys. Res. 102:19,413-19,431. Chen, T.H. ... Polcher, J. ... Laval, K. ... (1996) Cabauw experimental results from the project for intercomparison of land-surface parameterization schemes (PILPS) Journal of Climate 10:1194-1215. Laval, K., Raghava, R.C., Polcher, J., Sadourny, R., Forichon, M., (1996) Simulation of the 1987 and 1988 Indian Monsooons using the LMD GCM. Journal of Climate 9:3357-3371. Henderson-Sellers, A., Polcher, J., Chen, T. H., Nakken, M., and Pitman, A. J., (1996) Predicting global change at the land-surface: the Project for Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS) (Phase 4). Seventh Symposium on Global Change Studies pp. 59-66, Boston, American Meteorological Society. Polcher, Jan (1997) The sensitivity of the tropical climate to land surface processes. ECMWF Seminar 8 Sep. 1997 - 12 Sep. 1997 Laval,Katia (1997) Hydrological processes in GCMs. NATO ASI Series Vol 46. Edited by Sorooshian. Springer Verlag. Schulz, J.-P., L. Dumenil, J. Polcher, C. A. Schlosser, Y. Xue, (1998) Land surface energy and moisture fluxes: comparing three models, J. Appl. Meteor. 37:288-307. Ducharne, A. Laval, K. and Polcher, J. (1998) Sensitivity of the hydrological cycle to the parameterization of soil hydrology in a GCM. Climate Dynamics, 14, pp 307-327. J.Polcher, B. McAvaney, P. Viterbo, M.-A. Gaertner, A. Hahmann, J.-F. Mahfouf, J. Noilhan, T. Phillips, A. Pitman, C.A. Schlosser, J.-P. Schulz, B. Timbal, D. Verseghy and Y. Xue. (1998) A proposal for a general interface between land-surface schemes and general circulation models. Global and Planetary Change 19, pp 263-278 Ciret, C., Polcher, J. and Le Roux, X. (1998) An approach to simulate the phenology of savanna ecosystems in the LMD general circulation model. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 13(2), pp603-622 De Rosnay, P. and Polcher J. (1998) Modeling root water uptake in a complex land surface scheme coupled to a GCM. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2(2-3), pp239-256 J. Polcher, J. Crossley, C. Bunton, H. Douville, N. Gedney, K. Laval, S. Planton, P.R. Rowntree, and P. Valdes (1998) Importance of land-surface processes for the uncertainties of climate change; A European project. GEWEX-News, May. M. Sabre, K. Hodges, K. Laval, J. Polcher and F. Desalmand (2000): Simulations of Monsoon disturbances in the LMD GCM. Monthly Weather Review, 128, 3752-3771 A. Ducharne and K. Laval (2000): Influence of the realistic description of soil-holding capacity on the global water cycle in a GCM. Journal of Climate, 13, 4393-4413 Further information see: or:
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