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Impact of land use changes on future monsoon climates - WP2100

Partners involved: LMD (lead contractor), MF, ICTP and CEH

The aims of this work package are to use global and/or regional control and scenario integrations to address the impact of land-use changes (e.g. deforestation) on monsoon climates. The sensitivity of the results to the representation of hydrological and land-surface processes will be investigated.

Principle achievements so far:

  • A sophisticated soil scheme has been developed to improve the simulated seasonal cycle and to enable the impact of irrigation on the Indian climate to be assessed. Irrigation will alter the water balance in the soil and thus affect the surface temperature and climate; it will also alter the levels of river run-off into the ocean and hence the freshwater budget.

  • Detailed satellite mapping of land surface properties has been used to develop new scenarios of global land use for the current climate, which can be implemented in land surface models to investigate the interaction between climate and vegetation.

  • A method of converting land use classes (fuel-wood areas, cropland areas, fallow and grazing land) into functional types - rladleaf trees, shrubs, C4 grasses and crops and bare soil has been developed.

  • Collation of data relating to land use and deforestation of West Africa has been completed. These data are being used to complete estimates of past and present land cover in West Africa which will be used as the basis of alternative land use scenarios

Publications on this topic arising from PROMISE

Douville H. 2002 Influence of soil moisture on the Asian and African monsoons. Part II: Interannual variability Journal of Climate 15 701-720

Douville H. 2002 Assessing the influence of soil moisture on seasonal climate variability with AGCMs J. Hydrometeorology Submitted

Douville H., F. Chauvin, S. Planton, J.F. Royer, D. Salas y Mélia, S. Tyteca 2002 Sensitivity of the hydrological cycle to increasing amounts of greenhouse gases and aerosols. Climate Dynamics 20 45-68

Maynard K. and J.F. Royer 2003 Impact of realistic deforestation on West African monsoon Climate Dynamics Submitted

Taylor, C., D. O'Regan, Lambin and Stephenne 2003 Assessing the sensitivity of West African climate to land use change In preparation

Taylor, C. M., E. F. Lambin, N. Stephenne, R. J. Harding and R. L. H. Essery 2002 The influence of land use change on climate in the Sahel Journal of Climate 15 3615-3629

Publications relating to this topic by PROMISE partners

Douville H. and J-F. Royer (1996): Sensitivity of the Asian summer monsoon to an anomalous Eurasian snow cover within the METEO-FRANCE GCM, Climate Dynamics, 12, 441-448.

Douville H, Chauvin F (2000): Relevance of soil moisture for seasonal climate predictions: a preliminary study. Climate Dynamics 16, 719-736

Douville H, Chauvin F, Broqua H (2001): Influence of soil moisture on the Asian and African monsoons. Part I: Mean monsoon and daily precipitation. J Climate (in press)

Douville H (2001): Influence of soil moisture on the Asian and African monsoons. Part II: interannual variability. J Climate (submitted)

Ferranti, L. and F. Molteni, 1999: Ensemble simulations of Eurasian snow-depth anomalies and their influence on the summer Asian monsoon. Quaterly Journal of the Meteorological Society, 125, 2597-2610.

Corti, S., F. Molteni and C. Brankovic, 2000: Predictability of snow-depth anomalies over Eurasia and associated circulation patterns. Quaterly Journal of the Meteorological Society, 126, 241-262.

Meigh J.R., McKenzie A.A. and Sene K.J., (1999) A grid-based approach to water scarcity estimates for eastern and southern Africa. Water Resources Management, 13, 85-115

Taylor CM, Harding RJ, Thorpe AJ, Bessemoulin P. 1997. A mesoscale simulation of land surface heterogeneity from HAPEX-Sahel. LJ.Hydrol. 189: 1040-1066.

Taylor CM, Sad F, Lebel T. 1997. Interactions between the land surface and mesoscale rainfall variability during HAPEX-Sahel. Mon.Weath.Rev. 125: 2211-2227.

Taylor CM, Lebel T. 1998. Observational evidence of persistent convective-scale rainfall patterns. Mon.Weath.Rev. 126: 1597-1607.

Taylor CM. 2000. The influence of antecedent rainfall on Sahelian surface evaporation. Hydrol.Processes 14: 1245-1259.

Taylor, CM and Blyth, EM. 2000. Rainfall controls on evaporation at the regional scale: an example from the Sahel. Journal Of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 105(D12), 15469-15480 .

Taylor, CM, Clark, DB, and Cox, PM. (in press)Land surface controls on West African rainfall in a GCM. International Workshop on West African Monsoon Variability and Predictability.

Polcher, J. (1994) Etude de la sensibilite du climat tropical a la deforestation. PhD Thesis, Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris VI.

Polcher, J. and Laval, K. (1994a) The impact of African and Amazonian deforestation on tropical climate. Journal of Hydrology 155:389-405.

Polcher, J. and Laval, K. (1994b) A statistical study of the regional impact of deforestation on climate in the LMD-GCM. Climate Dynamics 10:205-219.

Le Roux, X., Polcher, J., Dedieu, G., Menaut, J. C., and Monteny, B. (1994) Radiation exchanges above west african moist savannas: seasonal patterns, and comparaison with a GCM simulation. J. Geophys. Res. 99(D12):25,857-25,868.

Mechoso, C.R., Robertson, A.W., Barth, N., Davey, M.K., Delecluse, P., Gent, P.R., Ineson, S., Kirtman, B., Latif, M., Le Treut, H., Nagai, T., Neelin, J.D., Philander, S.G.H., Polcher, J., Schopf, P.S., Stockdale, T., Suarez, M.J., Terry, L., Thual, O., Tribbia, J.J. (1995). The seasonal cycle over the tropical pacific in general circulation models. Monthly Weather Review 123(9):2825-2838.

Polcher, J. (1995) Sensitivity of tropical convection to land surface processes. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 52(17):3143-3161.

R.C. Raghava, K. Laval, R. Sadourny, J. Polcher (1995) On the atmospheric response to the tropical denuding of vegetation. Atmospheric Environment 29, pp1963-2000.

K. Laval and J. Polcher (1995) Sensitivity of the Indian Monsoon to Land-Surface Evaporationrate in the LMD-GCM. AMIP Scientific Conference, 15-19 May 1995, Monterey, California

Polcher J., Laval, K., Dumenil, L., Lean, J., Rowntree, P.R. (1996) Comparing three land surface schemes used in GCMs. Journal of Hydrology 180:373-394.

Polcher J. and Shao, Y. (1996) A Standard format for reporting PILPS experiments. Global and Planetary Change 13:217-223.

Peylin, P., Polcher J., Bonan, G., Williamson, D., Laval, K. (1996) Comparison of two complex Land-Surface Schemes coupled to the NCAR-GCM J. Geophys. Res. 102:19,413-19,431.

Chen, T.H. ... Polcher, J. ... Laval, K. ... (1996) Cabauw experimental results from the project for intercomparison of land-surface parameterization schemes (PILPS) Journal of Climate 10:1194-1215.

Laval, K., Raghava, R.C., Polcher, J., Sadourny, R., Forichon, M., (1996) Simulation of the 1987 and 1988 Indian Monsooons using the LMD GCM. Journal of Climate 9:3357-3371.

Henderson-Sellers, A., Polcher, J., Chen, T. H., Nakken, M., and Pitman, A. J., (1996) Predicting global change at the land-surface: the Project for Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS) (Phase 4). Seventh Symposium on Global Change Studies pp. 59-66, Boston, American Meteorological Society.

Polcher, Jan (1997) The sensitivity of the tropical climate to land surface processes. ECMWF Seminar 8 Sep. 1997 - 12 Sep. 1997

Laval,Katia (1997) Hydrological processes in GCMs. NATO ASI Series Vol 46. Edited by Sorooshian. Springer Verlag.

Schulz, J.-P., L. Dumenil, J. Polcher, C. A. Schlosser, Y. Xue, (1998) Land surface energy and moisture fluxes: comparing three models, J. Appl. Meteor. 37:288-307.

Ducharne, A. Laval, K. and Polcher, J. (1998) Sensitivity of the hydrological cycle to the parameterization of soil hydrology in a GCM. Climate Dynamics, 14, pp 307-327.

J.Polcher, B. McAvaney, P. Viterbo, M.-A. Gaertner, A. Hahmann, J.-F. Mahfouf, J. Noilhan, T. Phillips, A. Pitman, C.A. Schlosser, J.-P. Schulz, B. Timbal, D. Verseghy and Y. Xue. (1998) A proposal for a general interface between land-surface schemes and general circulation models. Global and Planetary Change 19, pp 263-278

Ciret, C., Polcher, J. and Le Roux, X. (1998) An approach to simulate the phenology of savanna ecosystems in the LMD general circulation model. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 13(2), pp603-622

De Rosnay, P. and Polcher J. (1998) Modeling root water uptake in a complex land surface scheme coupled to a GCM. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2(2-3), pp239-256

J. Polcher, J. Crossley, C. Bunton, H. Douville, N. Gedney, K. Laval, S. Planton, P.R. Rowntree, and P. Valdes (1998) Importance of land-surface processes for the uncertainties of climate change; A European project. GEWEX-News, May.

M. Sabre, K. Hodges, K. Laval, J. Polcher and F. Desalmand (2000): Simulations of Monsoon disturbances in the LMD GCM. Monthly Weather Review, 128, 3752-3771

A. Ducharne and K. Laval (2000): Influence of the realistic description of soil-holding capacity on the global water cycle in a GCM. Journal of Climate, 13, 4393-4413

Further information

Work package description in the proposal
Detailed annual report (available to PROMISE partners or with the permission of the lead contractor)
Second annual report (available to PROMISE partners or with the permission of the lead contractor)
Third annual report (available to PROMISE partners or with the permission of the lead contractor)
Final report


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