Introduction Original Proposal EU Reports
Posters and powerpoint presentations Publications Administration
Conference reports Links to end users 2003 Conference

home / research / WP2100 / Proposal

Impact of Land-Use Changes on Future Monsoon Climates

Work Package 2100


Workpackage Number: WP2100
Start date: Month 0
Lead contractor: CNRS-LMD
Person months per partner: MF: 12
ICTP: 3
NERC: 14
CNRS-LMD: 15

Objectives:

To use global and/or regional control and scenario integrations to address the impact of land-use changes (e.g. deforestation) on monsoon climates. The sensitivity of the results to the representation of hydrological and land-surface processes will be investigated.

Work description:

MF: The impact of two scenarios of possible anthropogenic changes in tropical vegetation cover (deforestation and reforestation) over Africa on the climate of the middle of the 21st century, and its consequences on the surface climate and hydrology will be investigated. Using the reference `time-slice' integration with the zooming technique from WP2000, two simulations with different scenarios of vegetation change will be conducted. One scenario will be based on a hypothesis of continuation of the deforestation trends leading to a reduction of the forested areas. The other case will consider a possible extension of the forested zones due to the development of forest plantations.

ICTP: The large convective area located over the Amazon basin is important not only for its overwhelming effects on the hydrology of South America, but also as a driver of the regional branches of the Hadley and Walker circulation. As a consequence, massive deforestation of the Amazon basin may have consequences not only for Brazil but also for other regions in the equatorial and subtropical Atlantic region. During the northern winter, when the anomalies in local Hadley circulation interact with the North Atlantic jet stream, their influence may even extend to Euro-Atlantic extratropical regions. A modelling investigation of the effects of Amazonian deforestation will be pursued with the most updated version of land surface/vegetation scheme. The experiments will be performed and validated in collaboration with ECMWF and with CPTEC from Brazil.

NERC: Scenarios for land cover change from 1960-2025 will be generated for sub-Saharan Africa based on simple assumptions about population growth, land use practice, and current rates of deforestation. Gridded changes in generic vegetation classes (forest, cropland, savannah) will be converted to changes in land surface parameters which can be applied consistently in different GCMs. Comparison between modelled responses will be used to aid in the identification of common mechanisms and model short-comings.

CNRS-LMD: It has been postulated that overgrazing and irrigation may have perturbed the rainfall distribution over India. This hypothesis will be tested in an atmospheric GCM which includes an improved method for treating water vapour advection over mountainous areas. Earlier studies have shown that simulations of Indian rainfall have been spoiled by poor handling of water vapour advection.

Deliverables:

D2101: Development of future scenarios of land use changes for application in GCMs.

D2102: Assessment of the impact of land use changes (deforestation/reforestation, overgrazing, irrigation) on monsoon climates.

Milestones

Year 1: Development of scenarios for changes in land use.

Year 2: Numerical experimentation for African/Amazonian changes in forestation.

Year 3: Numerical eperimentation on the effects of overgrazing and irrigation over India.

Year 3: Analysis of results and conclusions on the importance of taking into account anthropogenic vegetation changes in future climate scenarios.

People involved with PROMISE PROMISE brochure Information about the PROMISE data archive Monsoon On Line - follow the Asian monsoon Details of PROMISE research Find out more about PROMISE Sesarch the PROMISE website