Natural variability of monsoon climates - WP 1000 Partners involved: the Met Office (lead contractor), UREADMY, CNRM, LMD, MPI Summary PROMISE aims to study the natural variability of monsoonal systems on seasonal, interannual and interdecadal timescales, using observations and model results. The analysis will include application of advanced statistical techniques. In addition, the interaction between various time and space scales will be investigated. some key achievements so far:
Publications on this topic by PROMISE partners Sperber, K. R., J. M. Slingo and H. Annamalai: Predictability and the relationship between subseasonal and interannual variability during the Asian Summer Monsoon. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., in press. Annamalai, H., J. M. Slingo, K.R. Sperber and K. Hodges, 1999: The mean evolution and variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon: Comparison of ECMWF and NCEP/NCAR Reanalyses. Mon. Weath. Rev., 127, 1157-1186 Ferranti, L., J. M. Slingo, T. N. Palmer and B. J. Hoskins, 1997: Relations between interannual and intraseasonal monsoon variability as diagnosed from AMIP integrations. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 123, 1323-1357. Stephenson D.B., Douville H. and Kumar, K. (In press) Searching for a fingerprint of global warming in the Asian summer monsoon Janicot, S. Spatio-temporal variability of West African rainfall. Part I : Regionalizations and typings. Journal of Climate, 5, 489-497. Janicot, S. Spatio-temporal variability of West African rainfall. Part II : Associated surface and air masses characteristics. Journal of Climate, 5, 499-511 Fontaine, B. and Janicot, S Wind field coherence and its variations over West Africa. Journal of Climate, 5, 512-524. Janicot, S. The West African monsoon of 1987 and 1988 : Pacific or Atlantic signal ? International Conference on Monsoon Variability and Prediction, Trieste, Italie, WCRP-84, WMO/TD-No 619, 765-772. Janicot, S. The recent West African rainfall variability through empirical and modelling investigations. Global precipitations and climate change, NATO ASI Series, I, Vol.26, 135-150. Fontaine, B. Janicot, S. and Moron, VRainfall anomaly patterns and wind field signals over West Africa in August (1958-1989). Journal of Climate, 8, 1503-1510. Abstract Roucoup P. et al Vertical motion changes related to north-east Brazil rainfall variability : a AGCM simulation. Int. J. Climatology, 16, 879-891. Fontaine, B. and Janicot, S. Near-global sea surface temperature variability associated with West African rainfall anomaly types. Journal of Climate, 9, 2935-2940. Rowell, D.P., 1996: Reply to comments by Y.C. Sud and W.K.-M. Lau on `Variability of summer rainfall over tropical north Africa (1906-92): Observations and modelling' by D.P. Rowell, C.K. Folland, K. Maskell and M.N. Ward (April 4, 1995, 121, 669-704): Further analysis of simulated interdecadal and interannual variability of summer rainfall over tropical north Africa. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 122, 1007-1013 Rowell, D.P., Folland, C.K., Maskell, K. and Ward, M.N., 1995: Variability of summer rainfall over Tropical North Africa (1906-92): Observations and modelling. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 121, 669-704 Rowell, D.P., Folland, C.K., Maskell, K., Owen, J.A. and Ward, M.N., 1992: Modelling the influence of global sea surface temperatures on the variability and predictability of seasonal Sahel rainfall. Geophys. Res. Lett., 19, 905-908 For further information
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